Product analyst: experiments, retention and metrics
Open to full-time Data Scientist, Analytics Engineer, Data Analyst and Product Analyst roles anywhere in the US (on-site, hybrid or remote; open to relocating).
I am Syed Ahmed Basharat Ali, a product analyst, data scientist and analytics engineer based in New York City. I work on the questions product teams ask: who stays, who leaves and why, whether a change actually caused the result, and which metric definition the team should trust. At Geidea, my churn and segmentation work fed a retention program that took merchant churn from 35% to about 10%. My public work tests experiment and metric design, including a causal study where the definition of "on time" flipped the sign of the effect.
What I've done
- Merchant churn prediction and revenue forecasting at Geidea that shaped a tiered retention strategy: churn fell from 35% to about 10% on a $5M+ revenue portfolio.
- A/B-tested merchant retention offers, and built LTV, CAC and cohort analysis for the merchant base.
- Segmented 40K+ merchants by MCC, interchange and chargeback behavior, and analyzed approval rates by MCC.
- Estimated whether on-time delivery causes repurchase across 101,684 JD.com orders with g-computation, IPW and AIPW; three definitions of on time gave -0.38, -0.06 and +0.51 points.
- Audited 90 semantic-layer queries and found 40 (44%) had no single correct answer until an allocation rule was declared.
Public work
- Does on-time delivery make customers come back?: 101,684 JD.com orders; the definition of "on time" flips the effect on 21-day repurchase from -0.38 to +0.51 points.
- A trust harness for a semantic layer: 40 of 90 queries (44%) have no single answer; one revenue question returns $149M, $136M or $107M depending on the join.
- Validating the LLM judge that decides what you bill for: The LLM judge overstates resolution by 5.2 points overall and +19.4 in one category; the judge-only confidence interval covers the truth 0% of the time.
Tools
SQL, Python, R, Causal inference, A/B testing, Tableau, Power BI, Metabase, dbt, Snowflake.
Contact
Email sabasharat.ali@gmail.com, or find me on LinkedIn and GitHub. Full history on the experience page.
Open to roles anywhere in the US: on-site, hybrid or remote.